Defence is in an era of persistent confrontation and conflict where operational frequency and duration have increased to the extent that there are unlikely to be any discernible gaps for forces committed to prosecuting them. Trends in the global strategic context will continue to drive the occurrence and evolution of conflict. Climate change will place populations at risk of flooding or loss of livelihood. Shifting demographics and population movements are leading towards greater inequality and this, in turn, is a factor in radicalisation amongst disaffected groups. Uncertain availability of natural resources, including water and energy, will be compounded by the availability of weapons, including Weapons of Mass Effect, amongst armed societies. Where these trends collide, there can be rapid change, carrying with it an increased risk of instability and conflict.